Keys to unlocking the full potential of the AfCFTA – a case study for Central Africa

Abstract

The AfCFTA is a key opportunity for Central African governments to build upon regional integration strategies, aligning their national trade strategies as well as industrial strategies, to enhance intraregional trade as well as trade with continental partners. Trade strategies are linked to the productive capacity of each country, and therefore the development of trade strategies requires direct linkages with the National Industrialization Plans which, for Central Africa, advocate industrialization based on natural resources and driven by trade, in line with the Douala Consensus. Implementing a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model which captures international trade linkages and production capacity, the potential economic impacts of the AfCFTA on Central Africa region and its countries are examined. At present SRO-CA economic modelling includes results for 7 of 11 Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) member countries available in the GTAP Database used in economic modelling. Trade between ECCAS members and the rest of the continent increases across all products. Extra-continental trade decreases. The most important increases in trade for ECCAS as a sub region occur for heavy and light manufacturing as well as processed food.