Macroeconomic and Social Developments in Eastern Africa 2022: building resilience in a hostile global context

Abstract

This report focuses on the period of economic recovery from the global pandemic - a recovery that started in 2021 and should have gained pace in 2022, were it not for an unfortunate set of circumstances, including severe drought in the Horn of Africa, the conflict, and the breaking out of war between Russia and Ukraine in February 2022. Serious climatic events seem to be becoming the norm for the region, with Madagascar badly affected by a prolonged drought in the south of the island while South Sudan suffered major flooding in early 2022. Food production systems in the region have thus suffered from multiple challenges. inflation has also become a serious problem in a number of countries. Globally, inflationary pressures were already mounting in the second half of 2021, partly as a consequence of the disruption to global supply chains due to the lock-down measures that were implemented to tackle the Covid-19 crisis. The economic recovery in Eastern Africa has been negatively affected by this unfortunate set of circumstances – particularly in the countries which are the largest net food and fuel importing countries. Several countries also now dedicate a large share of their revenues to interest payments which detracts from developmental expenditures and over the long run will not be sustainable. It is against this backdrop that this report is written, providing an overview of the macroeconomic and social status of Eastern Africa.