Global trade models and economic policy analyses : relevance, risks, and repercussions for Africa
View
Download
Published
2006-12Author(s)/Corporate Author (s)
Hammouda, Hakim Ben;Osakwe, Patrick N.;
United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa. African Trade Policy Centre
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are widely used for trade policy analyses and recommendations. Simulation results from these models have also been used as a basis for offering advice to African countries on what positions to take in multilateral trade negotiations. There is however increasing discomfort with the use of these models for policy recommendations, especially in Africa. In this paper we compare the results of several CGE studies that examined the impact of potential Doha Round reforms on Africa and demonstrate that the results differ drastically both in terms of magnitude and direction. Part of the discrepancies in results can be explained by differences in database, model structure, and choice of parameters. Others are, however, difficult to explain because several studies either do not report key assumptions made or do not provide a clear description of how their framework differs from those in the literature. We also show that the modelling approach and the database used in most CGE studies do not take account of key features of African economies that have serious implications for the impact of trade reforms on Africa. Finally, we outline potential consequences of the misuse of CGE models for policy evaluation and suggest pitfalls to avoid if CGE model results are to be taken seriously by policy makers in Africa.
Citation
“Hammouda, Hakim Ben; Osakwe, Patrick N.; United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa. African Trade Policy Centre (2006-12). Global trade models and economic policy analyses : relevance, risks, and repercussions for Africa. ATPC work in progress;. No.47, v, 27 p.. Addis Ababa:. © UN. ECA,. https://hdl.handle.net/10855/29170”Serial Title
ATPC work in progress;Collections
Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Understanding the Relationship between Health and Education for Development in Nigeria
United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa; United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa. African Institute for Economic Development and Planning(IDEP); United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa; United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa. African Institute for Economic Development and Planning(IDEP)
“Kalu, Chris U.; Abdul-Raheem, Tajudeen; United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa; United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa. African Institute for Economic Development and Planning(IDEP); United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa; United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa. African Institute for Economic Development and Planning(IDEP) (2018-05). Understanding the Relationship between Health and Education for Development in Nigeria. Policy Brief. No. 007, 4 p.: ill.. Addis Ababa:. © UN. ECA,. https://hdl.handle.net/10855/49836”
Report of a mission to a brainstorming session on the preparation for women's meeting and mainstreaming of gender in the process of the international conference on the great lake Nairobi, Kenya, 16 February 2004
United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa. African Centre for Gender and Development; United Nations. Economic and Social Council; United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa. African Centre for Gender and Development; United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa.; United Nations. Economic and Social Council
“Tiagha, Hannah; United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa. African Centre for Gender and Development; United Nations. Economic and Social Council; United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa. African Centre for Gender and Development; United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa.; United Nations. Economic and Social Council (2004). Report of a mission to a brainstorming session on the preparation for women's meeting and mainstreaming of gender in the process of the international conference on the great lake Nairobi, Kenya, 16 February 2004. Addis Ababa :. © UN. ECA,. https://hdl.handle.net/10855/40625”
Report of mission to Accra 16-27 November 2004
United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa. African Centre for Gender and Development; United Nations. Economic and Social Council; United Nations. Economic and Social Council; United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa. African Centre for Gender and Development; United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa.
“Tadria, Hilda; United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa. African Centre for Gender and Development; United Nations. Economic and Social Council; United Nations. Economic and Social Council; United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa. African Centre for Gender and Development; United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa. (2004-11). Report of mission to Accra 16-27 November 2004. Addis Ababa :. © UN. ECA,. https://hdl.handle.net/10855/25563”