The statistical estimation of poverty duration and transitions in Zambia.

Abstract

This paper proposes a model that attempts to address poverty dynamics and provides an additional dimension to poverty for countries in the Southern African region. Most importantly, this study could facilitate the design of effective long-term poverty reduction policies. Additionally, chronic poverty alleviation is clearly a priority for governments since persistent suffering from low income, no income, unemployment and the associated outcomes of HIV/AIDS, malnutrition and poor education tend to have long-term effects, particularly on child development and on the overall development of Southern Africa. To focus on both short-term and long term spells of poverty, this study outlines a statistical model for determining poverty dynamics thereby making available information on various statistical tools and provides a justification for use by policy-makers and researchers for analyzing characteristics and changes in circumstances that drive the transitions in and out of poverty.