The impact of the AfCFTA on Agricultural Trade and Welfare in Africa: general and partial equilibrium effects

Abstract

This study examines the impact of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on agricultural trade and welfare in Africa, focusing on tariff elimination and Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) reduction. Using gravity and general equilibrium analyses, the findings reveal that while both tariffs and NTMs affect agricultural imports, NTMs have a more significant negative impact. Simultaneously eliminating tariffs and streamlining NTMs is projected to boost agricultural exports by 43.38% and imports by 97.46%, with a 1.91% average welfare improvement. However, benefits are unevenly distributed, underscoring the need for targeted policies to support export sectors in less-benefiting countries.