Africa sovereign credit rating outlook: 2024 year-end review 10th edition

Abstract

The second half of 2024 (2024H2) presented a mixed economic dynamic across African countries. While most countries experienced an economic rebound, driven by improved commodity prices and economic reforms, several others continued to struggle with internal conflicts, political instability and adverse climate conditions. The 2024H2 period witnessed an increase in positive rating actions than downgrades and negative outlooks, as was the case in the first half of 2024 (2024H1). There were more positive changes in outlooks and rating upgrades. Eleven countries had their ratings upgraded or experienced a positive change in outlook from negative to stable or from stable to positive. The dominant sentiment towards positive rating actions reflects growing optimism about Africa’s political and economic prospects. S&P Global Ratings had the highest number of rating activities in Africa during the period 2024H2, taking rating actions on 13 countries – 4 downgrades, 4 upgrades, 4 negative changes in outlook and 1 positive change in outlook.