GDP measurement and urban data piloting in Harare city

Abstract

Cities are centers of economic growth and development, but many African countries still don’t have measures of economic activities within the boundaries of these cities. In most cases national income accounts only capture gross domestic product (GDP) at the national level with a limited attempt to dis-aggregate the output value to sub-national levels. For instance, about 85 percent of the global gross domestic product in 2015 was generated in cities. Evidence shows that in many cities, city size is positively associated with economic growth. There has been therefore an increased interest in the measurement of city sizes. In many countries such as Zimbabwe, city GDP is not only crucial as an indicator of city size, but it is also an important indicator for tracking progress in developmental goals. This study is therefore part of ECA’s intervention in the development of city indicators to track progress in economic and social development. The main objectives of the study are therefore to: Identify and assess the availability of data for city GDP estimation in coordination with local and national statistical authorities; Define the most appropriate methodology for city GDP estimation in Harare based on available data; Collect and compile the raw data sets required for the city GDP estimation, and; Estimate GDP of Harare. The study tried to obtain improved Harare city GDP estimates based on the top-down approach where GDP at national level is apportioned to Harare city using workers’ productivity. This approach is widely used and has the capacity to dis-aggregate national level GDP to city level GDP. The findings in this study show that Harare contributes at least 34 percent of the national GDP since 2015. The main implication of these estimates is that the economy of Zimbabwe is largely shaped by economic developments of Harare city. A GDP contribution of 38 percent or more from only one city is remarkably high for the city to drive growth of the economy. Therefore, the bad infrastructure of the city is not only a problem of city fathers, but it has negative consequences on the city’s contribution to national development.