New assessment of the economic impacts of the agreement establishing the African continental free trade area on Africa: Policy Brief

Abstract

The Economic Commission for Africa and the Centre for International Research and Economic Modelling of the Centre d’Etudes Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales undertook a new comprehensive assessment of what the economic implications of the ongoing implementation of the Agreement would be. The analysis relies on computable general equilibrium modelling. Implementation of the Agreement would liberalize trade in goods, in line with agreed modalities of the African Continental Free Trade Area; cut by 50 per cent actionable trade barriers in health and education services and in the five priority service sectors that have received greater attention owing to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) crisis; and cut actionable non-tariff barriers by 50 per cent. The following three alternative scenarios are also analysed: liberalization of trade in goods only; liberalization of trade in goods plus a 50 per cent reduction in actionable trade barriers in the five priority services sectors and in health and education services; and liberalization of trade in goods plus a 100 per cent reduction in actionable trade barriers in the five priority services sectors and in health and education services, as well as a 100 per cent reduction in actionable non-tariff measures. The findings presented in the policy brief and, in particular, the absolute and relative changes calculated are therefore expected to slightly change.