Final Report on the creation of three interconnected sectoral simulation models on agriculture, water and energy, customized and parametrized to Cameroon, Uganda and Mozambique

Abstract

“Nexus thinking” is an approach that recognizes the critical interdependence of food, energy and water in an increasingly resource-constrained world. Understanding and improving how we manage and use these resources is critical, especially in the face of climate change. • This project aims to address a specific gap, in that conventional forecasting tools and analyses are often comparatively static (mostly employing linear approaches) and narrowly focus on a sector or a specific set of thematic indicators. The systemic approach employed here considers social, economic and environmental indicators within a sector and links them across sectors to generate dynamic projections that allow policy outcomes to be estimated for all economic actors. Using a nexus approach allows potential synergies and bottlenecks to be identified that could render a project (or an investment) more or less attractive or economically viable. Positive synergies have been found, with savings emerging in water and energy use that both increase climate resilience and at the same time lead to stronger economic performance for the sectors. Similarly, cross-sectoral impacts emerge for health and livelihoods, where investing in climate adaptation not only improves climate resilience, but also increases social and economic resilience for the local population.