Waving or Drowning? The Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on East African Trade

Abstract

Despite the severe economic and social repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic, the East Africa Community economies (Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda) have, by global standards, proven to be relatively resilient. This report focuses on providing an analysis of the region’s merchandise trade performance during this unprecedented period of disruption to global commerce. Among the principal findings, the report highlights the following:Exports have mostly recovered to pre-crisis levels: Aggregate exports from the region declined sharply in April 2020 but picked up again in the ensuing months. By the third quarter, most of the EAC Partner States’ exports surpassed their 2019 levels. • Intra-EAC trade exhibited greater resilience than the extra-EAC trade: Given the fragility of supply chains and the global trading system during the pandemic , extra-regional trade was generally more impacted than intra-regional trade. But the picture was mixed, with some extra-regional exports, such as minerals, doing exceedingly well.