Macroeconomic and social developments in Eastern Africa 2020: benchmarking performance towards National, regional and international goals

Abstract

As the fastest growing region on the African continent, Eastern Africa had an average annual GDP growth rate of 6.6 percent between 2014 and 2018, more than double the continental average. With a 6.1 percent growth rate in 2019, following 6.6 percent in 2018, the high growth rate is set to continue. Improvements in agricultural production and sustained infrastructure investment have maintained growth and will continue to do so; meanwhile, resolution of the political conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia promises to provide a boost to growth in the Horn of Africa. Socially, too, there have been important gains for the region. Life expectancy, a broad indicator of welfare and living standards, has increased in the region by 6.7 years over the past decade, with some countries registering historically unprecedented gains; for example, Kenya and Rwanda both registered increases in excess of eight years. This report carries a preliminary analysis of this question, using the examples of Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda. The conclusions are informative: all three countries give a priority to investment in infrastructure, necessary to sustain the high rates of economic growth. Education also receives significant attention, but allocations to health tend to lag. This is unfortunate, particularly as the SDG Centre’s Index and Dashboard Report (2019) finds that, in terms of meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of Agenda 2030, the steepest challenges for Eastern Africa are SDG 3, 9 and 16 (i.e. good health and wellbeing; industry, innovation and infrastructure; peace, justice and strong institutions) with all countries, except Seychelles, scoring red.