COVID-19 Crisis in North Africa: the Impact and Mitigation Responses

Abstract

North African economies are hardly hit by COVID-19, induced by the lockdown measures which had negative impact on the supply and demand sides, and the drastic reduction of world demand, fueling a drop in North Africa exports. Economic recovery of the sub region is expected to start in 2021, assuming there is no relapse of the pandemic. The recovery, expected for 2021, is conditioned on the success mitigation measures currently being implemented by governments. Some countries of the sub region, with marked dependency on tourism-related activities (transports, catering, hotels, etc.), will see their recovery path delayed as the containment measures will last for longer periods. Fighting the health pandemic while reducing the impact on the economy requires a set of strong and coherent policies to: support firms (tax measures, financing unemployed part-time employees, guaranteed loans and special lines of credit etc.) to remain in operation and avoid closures, support workers and vulnerable populations through targeted policies and wide social protection measures (cash transfers programs, food aid, unemployment benefits and paid sick leave plans, food access, etc.).