Trade can induce climate-resilient reforms for food security in Africa

Abstract

Commodity-based economic growth that has driven Africa’s development in the past decades is now in jeopardy owing to the impact of climate change on natural resources and agricultural commodities. The effects of temperature on the aggregated macroeconomic productivity in poor countries have been found to be linearly related1 to an increase in temperature, primarily through the effects of temperature on workers and crops. Lobell and others (2011)2 demonstrated the nonlinearity between warming and yield relationships in African maize, in particular how the final yield of maize under rain-fed conditions was reduced by 1 per cent for every day spent above 30o C, even by just one additional degree. Through those findings, it was underscored that approximately 65 percent of Africa’s maize-growing areas will experience temperature-induced yield losses at 1o C of warming, even under optimal rain-fed management.