Hiv/Aids and the Nigerian labour force : a descriptive analysis

Abstract

This study attempts a descriptive analysis ofHIV/AIDS implications for the Nigerian labour force by hypothetically estimating Output Loss due to the prevalence of the pandemie for the period 1987-2003. To have an estimate of potential output loss, average productivity of the active labour force was calculated in the form of real gross domestic output as a ratio of the total labour force. The computed average productivity was then multiplied by the figures of reported HIV/AIDS cases for the particular year. Using ante-natal clinic attendees for the period under study as a proxy for trends of Adults' HIV prevalence rates in Nigeria, the study also estimated the medical cost of the infected labour force by using the average cost of medication of Tanzania as a proxy, since such information on Nigeria is completely unavailable or inaccessible. The main findings conceming the epidemic's implications for the Nigerian labour force are that, assuming the cost oftreating an infected adult is about 33412 naira and the govemment is to cater for about 50% of the infected adults, as at the year 2003, the amount to be spent would be higher than the budgetary allocation of sectors like Sports, Tourism, etc. This implies that the pandemic's budgetary implications could be huge and become unsustainable. The study also compared changes in labour force characteristics and indicators in Nigeria and found that HIV 1 AIDS redu ces the Nigerian labour force and alters its structure and composition. Therefore, specifie preventive interventions and campaigns to stop and even reverse the continued alarming spread of the disease should be set up, in view of the epidemic's high attrition rate. The govemment must fully involve all stakeholders because the implications affect all.