The implications of the GDP rebasing exercise for Uganda the EAC

Abstract

The Government of Uganda released last week, updated figures that raised the country's GDP by 13.1 percent from 63,905 billion shillings ($24.7bn) to 68,407 billion shilling ($26.9bn) for the fiscal year 2013/14. The re-calculation was a result of changes to the base year, from 2002 to 2009/10. The new figures are to be welcomed because they provide the basis for more accurate economic indicators that are essential for evidence-based policy making. The revision has significantly improved coverage of economic activities in the economy, especially for the informal sector and non-profit institutions. The revisions also have significant implications for the market size of the East African Community (EAC). Three out of the five EAC member states (Kenya, Tanzania and now Uganda) have recently announced revised GDP estimates. In September the rebasing of the Kenyan economy - the largest in Eastern Africa - resulted in a 25.3percent increase of its GDP, and Tanzania has just released a preliminary estimate of its rebased GDP for 2007 of 27.8 percent.