Fuite des capitaux, épargne et investissement en zone franc Africaine : une approche économétrique par les données de panel

Abstract

Using an annual panel data approach for a sample of 12 African countries in the franc zone in the period 1970 to 2003, this paper explores this research question on the basis of econometric estimation techniques by Blundell and Bond (1998) system GMM. The econometric analysis reveals that capital flight affects negatively and significantly domestic investment. Our results indicate also a positive and highly significant effect of past investment on current investment in this zone, suggesting a high degree of persistence of usual investment behaviors. We estimate that for every dollar invested in the franc zone, roughly 83 cents contribute to increase current investment. Moreover we find that this domestic investment is positively and significantly related to the growth rate of real GDP and to the change in credit to private sector. This paper examines the implications of these results and proposes some policy measures to stem continued capital flight induce capital flight reversal and stimulate domestic investment.