Impact of climate change on agricultural trade flows and food security in the Economic Community of West African States

Abstract

This paper presents a summary of a study conducted to investigate the impact of climate change on agricultural trade flows inside the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and between ECOWAS and non-ECOWAS countries. The study was conducted using a trade module of trade cost minimization within a bio economic optimization model for crop-land allocation. The results show that ECOWAS climate-influenced trade patterns will depend on prevailing socioeconomic conditions in the twenty-first century. No specific trade flow pattern is predicted, but specific countries are likely to become net food exporters in some years and net importers in others. In addition, several countries may become dependent on external trade to meet their domestic food requirements. The cost of importing food into ECOWAS countries will depend on the levels of common exterior tariffs. In that regard, the study shows that a 5 to 10 per cent reduction in common exterior tariffs could cut the overall cost of trade by approximately 3 to 7 per cent.