Notes on the political economy of recent economic growth in Egypt

Abstract

Since 1974, the Egyptian economy, has experienced, a period of sustained growth. Output as measured by real GDP has been increasing at an average rate of between 4 and 5 % per annul; Published data indicate a higher rate of growth in the area of 8 %, However, such a high rate is due to inadequate data, faulty pride indicates biased towards underestimating inflation rate and errors of conceptual definition. The most obvious example of this’ latter data inadequacy is that GDP and NI figures reflect a mixture of real increase in output and income transfers including subsidies. allowance for all these factors point out conclusively to a rate of growth not exceeding 5 % by any means. This average rate of growth continued in the last two years, perhaps at a slightly decelerated rate. While official statistics are available only for 1979, all available indicators such as investment figures, construction inputs and capital goods imports support such a conclusion.